Pollutants Dispersion Probabilistic Analysis Using a First Order Reliability Method

Abstract

In this paper a First Order Reliability Method (FORM) is applied to the problem of pollutants dispersion on a straight beach. Even if this problem is governed by a system of nonlinear partial differential equations, an analytical solution was found for a simplified but representative case. This solution allows one to evaluate the concentration of the pollutants in a point distant from its source. Coupling this equation with a FORM it is then possible to evaluate the probability of the pollutant concentration being higher than a prescribed limit, assuming that the variables of the problem have Gaussian distributions. For validation, results given by FORM are compared to results of Monte Carlo simulation.